Comments on: Modeling Is Not a Four-Letter Word

By: John Poole

John Poole — Fri, 13 Mar 2015 18:22:30 +0000

Allison,

Allison,

You've reminded me of that episode of "Big Bang Theory" where our mutual hero, Sheldon Cooper, exclaims: "Engineering is just the younger, slower brother of the theoretical sciences. Now, somebody help me figure out how to open this toolbox...". (I think it was the fighting robots episode...)

Seriously, though: I'm of the opinion that energy modeling is essentially hypothesis building; or more precisely, the creation of a particular instance of an hypothesis. And sure, you absolutely should confirm it with experimental data.

But I believe the problem with that are the practical challenges to setting up and managing a follow-on program of data collection and analysis.

As I'd mentioned to you, I've been collecting passive performance data from several properties for well over a year now. But these are properties I either control or otherwise have ready access to.

I could see where private homeowners might be less than thrilled by the idea of instrumenting their homes for a year of ongoing data collection after you've completed construction or retrofit work. Unless they're really engaged in the process and you can convince them of the value of doing so upfront.

~ John

By: John Poole

John Poole — Fri, 13 Mar 2015 14:22:30 +0000
Allison,    You've reminded me of that episode of "Big Bang Theory" where our mutual hero, Sheldon Cooper, exclaims: "Engineering is just the younger, slower brother of the theoretical sciences. Now, somebody help me figure out how to open this toolbox...". (I think it was the fighting robots episode...)    Seriously, though: I'm of the opinion that energy modeling is essentially hypothesis building; or more precisely, the creation of a particular instance of an hypothesis. And sure, you absolutely should confirm it with experimental data.     But I believe the problem with that are the practical challenges to setting up and managing a follow-on program of data collection and analysis.     As I'd mentioned to you, I've been collecting passive performance data from several properties for well over a year now. But these are properties I either control or otherwise have ready access to.     I could see where private homeowners might be less than thrilled by the idea of instrumenting their homes for a year of ongoing data collection after you've completed construction or retrofit work. Unless they're really engaged in the process and you can convince them of the value of doing so upfront.    ~ John

By: Robin Boyd

Robin Boyd — Sun, 08 Mar 2015 05:20:29 +0000
Scales are based on precise
Scales are based on precise known measurements, models are not. Models are subjective from design to first abuse, which in many cases is the initial design.

I think a main issue here is what we are individually defining as models versus proper measurements based on known data. Manipulating a manual J by going outside of the parameters for the specific region is akin to putting a thumb on the scale. Basing a system efficiency on some hypothetic number during some assumed length of time.

By: Robin Boyd

Robin Boyd — Sun, 08 Mar 2015 00:20:29 +0000
Scales are based on precise
Scales are based on precise known measurements, models are not. Models are subjective from design to first abuse, which in many cases is the initial design.     I think a main issue here is what we are individually defining as models versus proper measurements based on known data. Manipulating a manual J by going outside of the parameters for the specific region is akin to putting a thumb on the scale. Basing a system efficiency on some hypothetic number during some assumed length of time.

By: ted

ted — Sat, 07 Mar 2015 10:51:22 +0000
"the ability to pervert
"the ability to pervert the data in the model that allows modeling to become a very deceptive way of doing business. "

John, glad you came around on that one.

That there is much perverse incentive to exaggerate savings projections, and effectively NO counterbalancing accountability or incentive to tell the truth, is something I can definitely agree with you on.

That the butcher puts his thumb on the scale does not make the scale bad, nor mean we should throw away the scale. We must create reason to remove the thumb.

By: ted

ted — Sat, 07 Mar 2015 05:51:22 +0000
"the ability to pervert
"the ability to pervert the data in the model that allows modeling to become a very deceptive way of doing business. "    John, glad you came around on that one.     That there is much perverse incentive to exaggerate savings projections, and effectively NO counterbalancing accountability or incentive to tell the truth, is something I can definitely agree with you on.     That the butcher puts his thumb on the scale does not make the scale bad, nor mean we should throw away the scale. We must create reason to remove the thumb.

By: John Proctor

John Proctor — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 22:31:25 +0000
Ted Your comments are
Ted Your comments are offensive, I will not defend myself against stuff. Please make you point without attacking someone else. Marketing home performance is difficult and the size of the market is small (people who will part with that amount of money). I think everyone who has been in the business very long knows it. Nevertheless there is a problem with a system that loads on a lot of modeling overhead. That overhead drives up the cost and lowers the size of the market.

By: John Proctor

John Proctor — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 17:31:25 +0000
Ted Your comments are
Ted Your comments are offensive, I will not defend myself against stuff. Please make you point without attacking someone else. Marketing home performance is difficult and the size of the market is small (people who will part with that amount of money). I think everyone who has been in the business very long knows it. Nevertheless there is a problem with a system that loads on a lot of modeling overhead. That overhead drives up the cost and lowers the size of the market.

By: Robin Boyd

Robin Boyd — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 03:00:43 +0000
LOL, Ted. You are feisty on
LOL, Ted. You are feisty on this one. But as you should know by now, especially since you and I agree more often than not, I am certainly no sheep. Unfortunately, consumers and too many contractors are. They are sheep who are willing to follow bad modeling data right into the realm of high energy bills, warrany claims and uncomfortable homes.

Maybe it is not the fault of modeling in and of itself that is to blame, but it is the ability to pervert the data in the model that allows modeling to become a very deceptive way of doing business.

With any modeling, as with statistics, anyone can justify anything they want. How is this not something that is going be referred to with the use of four letter words?

All AHRI system ratings are based on models in which the data imput can range from data used in Maine, Key West, Salt Lake City, Honolulu, Fairbanks AK, Brownsville TX and every point between these extremes. Unfortunately, consumers and even contractors too often believe that if a system is AHRY rated, based on modeling, it must be ok to install anywhere.

By: Ted Kidd

Ted Kidd — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 01:56:35 +0000
Why is it we so often see
Why is it we so often see modelling blamed for problems when perverse incentive is at fault?

Seems only light weight critical thinking skills would be required to understand modelling isn't to blame when a contractor installs a grossly oversized furnace, at the encouragement & blessing of program of homeowner and program.

But you find contractor, homeowner, and program, all of which are fully to blame, looking for a scapegoat, and a bunch of lazy illogical sheep thinkers willing to accept that line of thinking as reasonable.

"Baaa-aaaa-aaaa"