https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/ Building science knowledge, HVAC design, & fun Mon, 03 Oct 2011 03:15:56 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.2 https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2794 Mon, 03 Oct 2011 03:15:56 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2794 Have you seen the updated
Have you seen the updated projections for US oil production in Energy Information Administration’s 2011 Annual Energy Outlook? The EIA predicts 25% growth from current output to 2035. The Outlook does not reveal where these new reserves will be found. It is an interesting report for anyone who likes fiction. http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/source_oil.cfm

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2793 Tue, 27 Sep 2011 18:12:29 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2793 Sure, looking back over the
Sure, looking back over the past ten years, America is smarter, kinder, richer, safer and more free. Nothing to worry about…

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2792 Sat, 24 Sep 2011 02:25:55 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2792 What John Mattson said. The
What John Mattson said. The number of Chicken Little scenarios in the course of just American history, is amazing. All you need to do is take a trend, project it immoderately and presto — you have a disaster scenario that many will find titillating.

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2791 Sat, 24 Sep 2011 01:20:57 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2791 Steve B.:
Steve B.: Yes, I certainly can attest to that. Although I know you from my first RESNET conference (2004), I didn’t get onto your radar screen until that peak oil conference in Yellow Springs, Ohio and then the very first ASPO-USA conference in Denver a month or so later. Steve Andrews also spoke at the ’04 RESNET conference, and I recall he focused on natural gas supply. 
 
Well, maybe too-big-to-fail applies to nations, too. I think China’s been helping keep us afloat with all the investment capital they’ve put here, at least partly for that reason.

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2790 Sat, 24 Sep 2011 00:49:55 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2790 As Allison can attest, I was
As Allison can attest, I was there with him many years ago in Yellow Sprngs. We just had Steve Andrews speak at RaterFest! and while his view is not as dystopic as JK, it’s moved steadily darker in the past few years.  
 
The issue is, to ride off of Steve, a liquid fuel problem. The magic fairy dust of kerogen or marlstone, aka shale oil or any of the other “silver bullets” is not going to save anyone’s bacon.  
 
I remain an optimist, but it’s increasingly difficult in the face of such willful ignorance. Of course, there is a lot of that resource around.  
 
It ought to be easier to get people to understand Peak Oil than say, Climate Change or Evolution. However, when faced with having to change the status quo, we seem to have an, again, infinite supply of resolve to do nothing, or damn close to it.  
 
Lots of great comments above. So, does TBTF apply only to banks or to nations as well?

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2789 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:29:31 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2789 John M.:
John M.: “…predicting the future is certain to fail… except by accident.” I agree!

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2788 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 22:17:47 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2788 Ever since “Famine 1975
Ever since “Famine 1975” I have been dubious of all disaster scenarios. Malthus is another good example. Homo sap keeps muddling on, and is nothing if not resourceful when it comes to continuing to muddle. Yes, things are going to continue to change (even IF politicians do promise it), and the future belongs to those smart enough to cope, and come up with new ways to cope. Kunstler predicts an empty southwest… why not a prospering SW which gets more solar energy and puts it to good use? Like planned economies, predicting the future is certain to fail… except by accident.

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2787 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:31:58 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2787 LOL. Well I did not mean that
LOL. Well I did not mean that technology would save us independent of our ability to help ourselves and others.  
 
I think that technology increases should cube our ability to help ourselves and others. That is my hope. This is one of my interests, and lines of development. 
 
For sure there is a long long way to go in getting the masses to come to the conclusion that they need to do “efficiency yesterday!” This topic of efficiency has already been – not easy – for me. 
 
I concede with you on that. 🙂 
 
Always a pleasure. -CC

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2786 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:21:33 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2786 Curmudgeon
Curmudgeon: I have to agree with your assessment of Kunstler. Think I’ll pass on the fictionalized version. Thanks for the offer, though. 
 
Andrew: Sounds like Kunstler’s book is right up your alley. 
 
Chris C.: I agree that the interwebs is making a huge difference in the flow of information. I disagree that technology will save us. I think we’re going to have to save ourselves in the end, and it’s not going to be easy.

]]> https://www.energyvanguard.com/blog/has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn/#comment-2785 Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:58:21 +0000 http://energyvanguard.flywheelsites.com/?blog_post=has-the-long-emergency-begun-peak-oil-and-the-economic-downturn#comment-2785 Sounds like an interesting
Sounds like an interesting read. I have read similar books 5-8 years ago as well. I do believe that Saudi Arabia is already past peak oil, but we cannot access the facts, because of … 
 
I am glad the “great recession” hit – just call it a depression damn it. If we called it then the condition would improve, and instead since we are pretending, it will just get worse. The reason I am glad is because the prior growth continued on would have been devastating to our energy society. 
 
I think that the hidden factor in the doom and gloom, is thus. Technology advances are on a hyper curved improvement. Technology advances are going to save mankind. 
 
An example of this is this blog, and linked in. We are no longer getting as much daily dose of propaganda from the syndicated networks. This is all more productive for us all. We are presented with real solutions from real people and we are sharing our technology. Another huge leap forward in technology.

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